One question, two venues, two prices
Polymarket and Kalshi both ask whether Bitcoin, Ether or Solana will be above a level at a given hour, and both run an order book on the answer. This portal reads every open crypto question on both, live, and lines them up: where the two books together price a sure thing under $1, where they simply disagree, and where a resting quote is paid to sit. Nothing here places an order — every row opens the venue.
Earn Predict.fun points in the apprest two-sided quotes on its rewarded markets from your browser, while you drive or playopen →Near-locks · YES here, NO there, under $1
A lock is buying YES on one venue and NO on the other for less than $1 combined, after both taker fees, on the same question: same asset, same level (within 0.05%), settling within a minute of each other. Even then the two venues read different indices — Polymarket settles on the Binance 1-minute candle close at 12:00 ET, Kalshi on the CF Benchmarks BRTI 60-second average at the close hour — so a few dollars of basis can separate them, and the page calls this a near-lock, never a guarantee.
reading both venues…
How far apart two crowds price one level
The same asset and level, settling at different hours of the same day. The gap is how differently the two venues price that line at their own moment — a lead for a study of which crowd is right, not a trade. Sorted by gap; mid prices for YES.
What Polymarket pays a resting quote, two ways
Makers pay no fee on these questions; takers pay a fee per share. The venue pays makers back two ways. The rebate: on every filled maker order, a share of that fee comes back daily — at 50¢ that is 0.35¢ a share, 70 bps of the notional, fading toward the extremes. The pool: some markets carry a daily rate split among orders resting within the paid band of the mid (at least the minimum size), scored every minute as ((band − distance) / band)² — full at the mid, a quarter halfway in, nothing at the edge; below 10¢ or above 90¢ only two-sided quoting scores. A configured band is not a pool: most crypto questions carry a band, few carry money, and the list below is read from the venue's live reward table, not from the band.
C1 · the pools on crypto questions today
C2 · the rebate on a fill, where the fills are
A rebate needs a fill, so the books rank by what they paid their makers over the last day, together — yesterday's volume at today's rebate rate, the size of the prize rather than anyone's share of it. The rebate is shown for a fill at the mid: cents per share and the same as a share of the notional. Cheap shares carry the highest share of notional and the smallest cents.
A desk for predictions · after the numbers earn it
- Rest inside the paid bandBoth sides of a Polymarket question, sized at the minimum the program counts, re-centred as the mid moves — the Passenger on a yes/no book. Inventory is bounded by the venue itself: a filled YES is at most a $1 claim.
- Take the near-locksWhen section A is not empty, buy YES and NO across the two venues in one motion and hold to settlement. Needs both legs to fill; the desk would size to the smaller touch and report the basis risk in dollars.
- What it needs from youPolymarket trading keys (the CLOB signs orders with your wallet; not offered to US members) and a Kalshi API key (US members). Until the desk ships, every row above deep-links to the venue so the leg is yours to place.